Hurricane Risk, Markets and Models Dashboard
How hurricane risk is being tracked by models and priced by markets. Updated throughout the day during hurricane season.
What changed
Day-over-day shifts — storm intensity changes, equity movers, cat bond proxy prices, and prediction-market volume. Quiet days collapse to a single line.
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Active storms & outlook
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Prediction Markets
What hurricane outcomes are trading right now on Kalshi and Polymarket — daily moves on the cross-platform grid, the market's implied 2026 hurricane-count distribution, and binary landfall odds on the strongest US-impact scenarios.
Today's moves
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2026 Atlantic count — market-implied
Each point is a Kalshi binary on "more than N Atlantic hurricanes in 2026." The market-clearing Yes price reads as probability. The 1991-2020 climate average shown as the slate reference line.
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US landfall odds
Binary outcome markets on the strongest US-impact scenarios for the 2026 Atlantic season. Yes price reads as market- implied probability; the 24h delta shows direction of conviction over the last day.
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Landfall probability
NHC 5-day cumulative probability that sustained winds reach the selected threshold at each shaded location within 120 hours.
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Companies on the line
Public US-listed companies with material Atlantic / Gulf hurricane exposure. Quote data via Yahoo Finance, ~15-minute delayed.
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Hurricane risk capital
Two market lenses on hurricane-risk pricing. The ILS ETF tracks cat bond spreads — the alternative-capital, risk-transfer market. KBWP tracks listed P&C insurer equity — where hurricane claims, reserves, and reinsurance costs flow through carrier earnings. Correlated at the long-run level, divergent on the day. Individual reinsurer names sit one panel up under "Reinsurers."
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Modeled losses
Post-event insured-loss estimates from the major catastrophe modeling firms — Moody's RMS, Verisk, CoreLogic, Karen Clark & Co. When an active storm has incoming estimates, those land here first; off-season, the most-recent prior event.
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Historical analogs
Past Atlantic hurricanes that landed in similar places. With an active forecast, the closest landfalls to today's cone come up first; off-season, the most-recent storms. Curated from NOAA / NHC historical records.
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